Shareable chart hub
AI Bubble Chart
A chart-first view of the AI bubble debate: AI bubble chart, AI bubble timeline, AI bubble vs dot-com bubble comparison, and stock-market risk signals in one research dashboard.
Cycle progress chart
Netscape Internet Wave vs ChatGPT AI Wave
Both series are indexed from the launch moment. The AI line shows the first 858 trading days after ChatGPT, compared with the first 858 trading days after Netscape and the later dot-com peak.
Indexed comparison for editorial research. See the methodology section for start dates, proxy index, weekly sampling, return formula, and source links.
Timeline chart
AI Bubble vs Dot-Com Bubble
This is the core chart people can reference when discussing where AI sits in the bubble cycle.
Commercial internet expands
Browsers, ISPs, and web infrastructure move the internet into mainstream business attention.
ChatGPT launch
Generative AI becomes a mainstream adoption shock and resets investor expectations.
Netscape IPO
The IPO becomes a public-market symbol for the internet investment cycle.
GPU demand breakout
Nvidia and the AI accelerator supply chain show real revenue acceleration.
Internet stocks surge
Speculation broadens as investors price rapid internet adoption into public equities.
Hyperscaler capex boom
Cloud providers expand data center, GPU, networking, power, and memory investment.
IPO mania
The cycle reaches broad euphoria as weak business models still attract capital.
AI bubble searches spike
Public concern rises as search interest, media debate, and valuation anxiety intensify.
Nasdaq peaks
The bubble breaks as valuation, profitability, and capital access collide.
AI infrastructure rally broadens
The trade spreads from GPUs into CPUs, HBM, NAND, SSDs, foundry, and data center suppliers.
Post-crash bottom
The market resets, but internet infrastructure and durable winners continue compounding.
Methodology
How the Bubble Timeline Is Calculated
The chart compares two technology cycles on an indexed basis. The dot-com cycle starts with the Netscape Navigator 1.0 release in December 1994. The AI cycle starts with the public ChatGPT release on November 30, 2022. Both paths are normalized to 0% at launch and measured by percentage return after launch, so the shape of each cycle is comparable even though the calendar years are different.
Cycle Start Dates
Netscape: December 15, 1994. ChatGPT: November 30, 2022. These dates define T=0 for each series.
Market Proxy
The baseline proxy is the NASDAQ Composite because it is broad, technology-heavy, and historically available.
Weekly Frequency
Daily closes are sampled to weekly observations to reduce noise while preserving the shape of each market cycle.
Indexed Return
Return is calculated as current close divided by launch-date close minus one, then multiplied by 100.
858 Trading Days
The comparison marker aligns each cycle at the same trading-day age, rather than the same calendar date.
Update Policy
The first site version is manually updated monthly. A later version should replace chart anchors with a versioned CSV.
Indexed return = (weekly_close / launch_week_close - 1) * 100 Primary Sources
Current chart values are editorial research estimates pending a fully versioned source CSV. The methodology above defines the production data process and should be used for the monthly update log. The chart is educational research, not investment advice.
Stock chart input
AI Stock Bubble Scorecard
The next version of this chart hub should add downloadable PNG and embeddable iframe versions.
| Company | Ticker | Category | AI Exposure | Bubble Risk | Key Signal to Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nvidia | NVDA | GPU | Very High | 78/100 | Data center growth, gross margin durability, hyperscaler concentration |
| AMD | AMD | GPU, CPU | High | 66/100 | AI accelerator adoption, data center CPU share, margin expansion |
| Intel | INTC | CPU, GPU | Medium | 48/100 | Foundry execution, AI accelerator traction, server CPU competitiveness |
| Micron Technology | MU | Memory, Storage | High | 69/100 | HBM pricing, DRAM cycle, AI server memory content |
| SanDisk | SNDK | Storage | Medium | 52/100 | NAND pricing, data center SSD demand, storage attach rates |
| SK Hynix | 000660.KS | Memory | Very High | 71/100 | HBM supply share, Nvidia qualification, memory cycle discipline |
| Samsung Electronics | 005930.KS | Memory, Storage | High | 58/100 | HBM competitiveness, foundry utilization, memory margin recovery |
Search questions
AI Bubble Chart FAQ
Short answers for the terms investors search when they compare AI bubble risk, AI stock bubble signals, and dot-com bubble parallels.
What is the AI bubble chart?
The AI bubble chart is a weekly indexed comparison of the AI market cycle after ChatGPT with the dot-com bubble cycle after Netscape.
How should I read the AI bubble chart?
Read the AI bubble chart as a cycle comparison, not a crash forecast. It shows relative progress, market acceleration, and where AI sits versus the dot-com bubble timeline.
Can I cite the AI bubble chart?
Yes. The chart is designed as a shareable AI bubble graph with a citation block, methodology, source links, and a monthly update policy.
Citation
Reference This Chart
AI Bubble Tracker, “AI Bubble Chart,” updated monthly. https://aibubbletracker.com/ai-bubble-chart/